- Home Price Expectations Improve While Other Indicators Show Little
Change in Trend
Amid a spate of positive economic news during the November survey period,
consumer sentiment appears to have stabilized from previous levels, with only
incremental improvement in the deeply negative housing market sentiment
witnessed this summer. According to results from Fannie Mae's November National
Housing Survey, home price expectations moved from negative to positive
territory for the first time in six months, with respondents expecting home
prices to increase by 0.2 percent over the next year. Overall, trends
demonstrate that consumers are in a "wait and see" pattern as we move into
2012. This places consumer sentiment in line with Fannie Mae's Economics &
Mortgage Market Group's November forecast of temporary economic improvement
during the third and fourth quarters of 2011 leading into a slower economic
growth path in 2012.
"Though their home price expectations have become slightly positive,
consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy and continue to
view their household finances as being relatively flat," said Doug Duncan, vice
president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "Most Americans expect no
improvement in their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and
will likely remain wary about undertaking the significant financial obligation
associated with homeownership until their view of their income, expenses, and
job security heads in a more positive direction."
Homeownership and Renting
- Twenty-two percent of respondents expect home prices to increase
over the next year (up 3 percentage points since last month),
while 22 percent say they expect home prices to decline, down
1 percentage point since last month. 53 percent say prices will
stay the same, a 2 percentage point drop from October.
- Thirty-three percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go
up over the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from October
and a return to the level seen in September.
- Sixty-eight percent of respondents say it is a good time to buy a
home (down by 1 percentage point since last month), and just 10
percent say it is a good time to sell, which is unchanged from
the previous two months.
- On average, Americans expect home rental prices to increase by
3.2 percent over the next year, a 0.1 percent decrease from
- Just 6 percent expect a decline in home rental prices (unchanged
since last month), while 41 percent of respondents believe that
home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months.
- Thirty-two percent of Americans say they would rent their next
home, while 63 percent say they would buy, down 3 percentage
points since last month and a return to the level seen in
The Economy and Household Finances
- Seventy-five percent of Americans say the economy is off on the
wrong track (down 2 percentage points since October), while just
16 percent think the economy is on the right track, unchanged
since September and tying the all-time low number.
- The number of respondents expecting their personal financial
situation to worsen over the next 12 months has stayed at 18
percent since October.
- Sixty-six percent say their income is about the same, the highest
number ever to report this. Sixteen percent of those surveyed say
their household income has increased over the past 12 months
(down 2 percentage points since October) while 18 percent say
that their income has declined significantly.
- Fifty-four percent report that their expenses are about the same
compared to 12 months ago (up 3 percentage points versus
October). Eight percent say their household expenses have
decreased over the past 12 months (down 3 percentage points since
October), while 37 percent say their expenses have increased
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae
National Housing Survey polled 1,002 Americans via live telephone interview to
assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates,
homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer
confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to
track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted
monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares
monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market
participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in
the near-term, and provide support in the future.
For detailed findings from the November 2011 survey, as well as technical
notes on survey methodology and the questions asked of respondents associated
with each monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National
Housing Survey site
Also available on the site are quarterly survey results, which provide a
detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies. The
November 2011 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between November
1, 2011 and November 25, 2011. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen
Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.
Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to
local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a
federal charter and operates in America's secondary mortgage market to enhance
the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and
other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those
who house America.
Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FannieMae.
SOURCE: Fannie Mae
CONTACT: Pete Bakel, +1-202-752-2034